By Dr. Larry Rosia, president and CEO
One of the most persistent myths in leadership is that effective leaders can see around corners. When we tell stories about successful leaders, we often make it sound as though they knew exactly where things were headed all along.
That's hindsight speaking. The uncertainty has been edited out of the story.
We like to imagine leadership as standing at a vantage point, seeing what others cannot. In reality, leadership often feels less like surveying the horizon and more like driving into it in the middle of a blinding Prairie snowstorm.
The key to leadership isn’t possessing privileged knowledge about what’s coming down the road; it’s accepting responsibility for moving forward when certainty is unavailable.
Because waiting is also a decision.
There’s often an assumption that delaying action is inherently safer. While waiting for more certainty is sometimes wise – particularly when the wait is short – sometimes it isn't.
Sometimes waiting means missed opportunities, and often it transfers risk rather than reducing it. Waiting for certainty carries consequences of its own.
So we evaluate leaders as though prediction was their primary job. We reward those who appear able to forecast trends, identify risks, anticipate disruption.
In performance reviews, boardrooms, media interviews, and political debate, leaders are judged according to how accurately they predicted events.
This creates an implicit belief that good leaders see the future more clearly than everyone else. The problem is that most of the decisions that define lives and organizations only seem obvious afterward.
It is easy to look back at decisions such as accepting a new role, starting a business, entering a new market, adopting a new technology, or pursuing a major strategic shift and conclude they were clearly right.
The outcome is used as evidence. Hindsight masquerades as foresight.
Once we treat outcomes as proof of good judgment, it’s a short step to treating them as proof of foresight.
Organizations reward leaders for being right. But in uncertain environments, the more important capability is recognizing when you're wrong and adjusting quickly.
When leaders believe they're expected to project certainty, they become less willing to acknowledge ambiguity, entertain competing viewpoints, or revise their initial assumptions. The demand for confidence can, paradoxically, reduce organizational learning.
As I told graduates this year, all of us are looking at the same road. The best leaders are those who know how to navigate when the road bends beyond sight. Those who can consider the options and, importantly, have the conviction to take the next step, learn from what emerges, and adjust when necessary.
The leaders we admire sometimes seem prophetic. But what made them effective wasn’t perfect foresight. It was their willingness to accept responsibility before clarity arrived.
Most of us are looking through the same windshield.
The difference is not who can see farther.
The difference is who is willing to keep moving when they can’t see around the next corner.
